Zaid Al-Ali is a Visiting Research Scholar at Princeton University, Author of Arab Constitutionalism (Cambridge, 2021), and a Senior Adviser to International IDEA and the United Nations. He will speak about “The Syrian Revolution and the Future of International Peace Negotiations”.

Syria is currently going through a major regime transformation.   In late 2024, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a rebel group that has jihadi origins, took over the capital and most major cities in a lightening offensive.  The long standing dictator Bashar al-Asad fled to exile in Russia, and HTS is now standing up a new government.   But it lives in a region with few good examples of how to do this. 

Since 2011, more than 10 countries in the Arab region attempted to rewrite their constitutions pursuant to massive peaceful uprisings.  The result in every country was either civil war (Yemen, Syria, Sudan, Libya), the reinstallation of a more repressive regime (Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, etc.), or stagnation disguised as minor reforms (Morocco, Jordan).  That the only (potentially) genuine case of revolution has come through a military campaign by a jihadi-linked organisation will have repercussions that are today not yet sufficiently studied or understood. 

Even before HTS’ victory, a consensus was already emerging that the international framework for conflict resolution is broken.  This has been linked to changing geopolitical dynamics that have also impacted the United Nations’ Security Council.  But HTS’ victory could move the dial much further.  An optimistic analysis would suggest that this could be the call for action that was so desperately needed to radically reform the international framework for conflict resolution.  A less optimistic view is that meaningful reform of the international framework will not take place, that there is no prospect for a negotiated improvement to the system of government in any of these countries.  If that view is correct, many reformists across the Arab region may very well reach the conclusion that their only hope to affect change is to follow HTS’ footsteps and attempt a violent takeover of the state.  

To attend virtually, contact Kim Murray.

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